SYNOPSIS:
COMBIRISK will identify regionally relevant risks through a data base to be established on documented crop specific responses and economic damages caused by adverse weather conditions. As a main outcome an indicator based high resolution GIS model ARIS (Agricultural Risk Information System) for monitoring and mapping combined abiotic and biotic weather related cropping risks was established and applied on current conditions over Austria and ensemble climate change scenarios in two main crop production regions in Austria.

SHORT SUMMARY:
Examining and identifying the regional, site specific cropping risks under climate change conditions is crucial for the assessment and recommendations of meaningful adaptation measures, especially at the farm level. This is still a big challenge for many European crop production regions. Research has mainly focused on average impacts, such as average changes in temperature and precipitation, and less so on extreme events, which can damage production resources (e.g. loss of soil from erosion events) and push farms beyond resilient states. Apart from bio-physical impacts of climate change, a more complete picture on farming systems is required (i.e. Schiermaier, 2015). It includes both the options for farmers to adapt to changing climate conditions as well as the risks from cumulating changes in their production environment, such as combinations of extreme climate events and market changes. Bio-economic farm models are an appropriate tool to analyze such relationships. They can represent the farming system, such as the interlinkages between plant and livestock production on a farm, farm resource conflicts such as labor and capital constraints and are able to integrate bio-physical impacts of climate change in economic farm decision making (e.g. Gibbons and Ramsden, 2008; Janssen and van Ittersum, 2007). Stochastic versions of such models have proven to be valuable tools to analyze weather related uncertainty and production risks (cf. Domptail and Nuppenau, 2010).

The approach of identifying and mapping the potential weather based cropping risks in selected agricultural production regions by using adequate agroclimatic indicators will be applied in our study. There is also still no consolidated data base in Austria on reported or measured weather related crop damages or failures, including all potential risks at the relevant sites and regions. This hampers model improvement by aggravating calibration and validation. Therefore a data base on documented and measured crop specific responses (i.e. yield loss) and economic damages caused by adverse weather conditions will be established. Reported damages will be related to measured weather conditions (statistical screening on significant relationships) and will be expressed in calibrated crop specific indicators subject to available data.

As a main outcome an indicator model of combined abiotic and biotic weather related risks will be established and applied on current conditions over Austria and ensemble climate change scenarios in two main crop production regions in Austria. A GIS-implemented version of the model based on the already established operational drought monitoring system AgroDroughtAustria (ACRP, 2014a) is used for mapping (long term risks) and will additionally allow extended operational monitoring and forecast applications in response to changing climatic conditions (i.e. Meinke and Stone, 2005). In order to demonstrate the development of regional tailored farm adaptation measures the indicator model will be applied in combination with a bio-economic farm model at two case study regions.

Following general objectives of the project are defined based on the research questions:

1) To establish a data bank of documented observed crop specific damages on arable crops and orchards in Austria caused by extreme weather events and weather related biotic risks and/or damages (pests, diseases), (WP1)

2) To analyse site and region specific single and seasonal observed combinations of biotic and weather based abiotic crop damages and related climate risks (WP2)

3) To establish and to test a set of crop specific agroclimatic indicators based on the identified biotic and abiotic crop-weather interactions for Austrian conditions in order to adapt and extend the available indicator model (AGRICLIM; Trnka et al., 2014) addressing multiple stress effects on selected crops (WP2).

4) To apply the adapted indicator model AGRICLIM under current climatic conditions addressing multiple crop stresses and establish a risk map with high spatial resolution (500x500m) (by extension of an already established GIS system) over Austria (WP3).

5) To identify changes in the spatial and seasonal distribution of past and future (under ensemble regionalized climate scenarios) weather related cropping risks for two Austrian case study regions with different crop growing conditions at a spatial resolution of 500m (WP3).

6) To establish regionalized and farming system specific climate risk management options for improving farm resilience and to model optimal risk management portfolios in a bio-economic farm model under given climate change, policy and market environments as well as risk behaviour (WP4) for the two case study regions.

7) Dissemination activities are crucial for promoting adaptation options to stakeholders (WP1-4). The project will therefore form a platform (via interactive webpage) for the Austrian farming community in order to stablish an homogenized, common bank of combined cropping risks, exchange Know-How and allow an intensified discussion on measures and adaptation options. Further the platform will be available beyond the project phase in cooperation with foreign partners (UNSAF, Serbia; Mendel University, CZ; Agricultural chambers, Austrian Hail Insurance). The GIS based AGRICLIM for spatial monitoring and forecast of combined cropping risks will be made available for operational implementation or use to relevant Institutions (as extension of the already established crop specific drought monitoring system “AgroDroughtAustria”.

Last Update: 30-10-2018